全球锂资源供需展望及锂产品价格预测
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作者单位:

1.中国恩菲工程技术有限公司, 北京 100038 ; 2.北方矿业有限责任公司, 北京 100052

作者简介:

王浩(1992—),男,山西霍州人,硕士,工程师,主要从事技术经济及管理工作。

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F416.32

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Supply and demand outlook of lithium resources and price forecast of lithium products
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Affiliation:

1.China ENFI Engineering Corporation,Beijing 100038 , China ;2.Norin Mining Limited, Beijing 100052 , China

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    摘要:

    本文简要介绍了锂行业市场发展现状,总结了资源端主要矿企未来的生产计划,结合下游市场的发展预期,对锂资源供需情况进行了展望;此外,阐述了锂产品的历史价格走势及其变化原因,分析了国内外锂矿的生产成本,对未来一段时间内锂的价格趋势进行了预测,并提出可能影响锂行业发展的不确定性因素。研究认为,随着资源端的积极开发,目前供需偏紧的局面将在2023年得到缓解并出现过剩,但锂资源的未来需求持续向好,预计未来数年内都将保持供需两旺的局面。预测碳酸锂价格将在2022年内保持高位震荡,2023年开始逐渐下行,并在低位维持一段时间,于2027年开始回升。

    Abstract:

    The paper briefly introduced the market development status of the lithium industry, summarized the future production plans of major mining companies on the resource side, and forecast the supply and demand of lithium resources in combination with the development expectations of the downstream market. In addition, the historical price trend of lithium products and the reasons for their changes were expounded, the production costs of domestic and foreign lithium mines were analyzed, the price trend of lithium in the future was predicted, and the uncertain factors that may affect the development of the lithium industry were proposed. Based on the research, it's believed that with the active development of resources, the current tight supply situation will be alleviated and oversupply will occur in 2023 while the demand for lithium resources will continue to improve in the future, and it's expected that both supply and demand will remain strong in the next few years. According to prediction, the price of lithium carbonate will remain fluctuated at a high level in 2022, begin to decline gradually in 2023 and remain low for a period of time before starting to rebound in 2027.

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引用本文

王浩,黄根红,陈瑞英,等.全球锂资源供需展望及锂产品价格预测[J]. 中国有色冶金, 2022, 51(6): 1-11.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-08-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-24
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